With the average age of the Supreme Court being so high, it is possible that as many as 4 Justices will retire during the term of the next elected President (only conservative Justice Clarence Thomas is under 65). This is particularly important since many of the crucial decisions that the current Court has made over the years have ended up in a 5-4 split. Among major 5-4 decisions are the following:
-Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) -which was related to abortion rights
-Stenberg v. Carhart (2000) -involving Partial Birth abortions
-Voucher Program for Parochial Schools (2002) -important to Church/State separation
-Federal protections against age discrimination -whether or not it applies to state workers
-The Americans with Disabilities Act
-The Violence Against Women Act
-Grutter v. Bollinger (2003) -the famed Affirmative Action case of last year
Probably the most telling or significant decision that the Court has made recently involved the last Presidential Election. The Supreme Court decided to halt the Florida Recount which sealed the Presidential victory for George W. Bush. What was the margin by which this decision was made you ask? 5-4, of course!
The 10 years that these 9 Justices have been together is the longest running uninterrupted term since 1823. Furthermore, President G. W. Bush is the 1st President since Jimmy Carter to not make an appointment during his 1st term. And I bet he's just itching to appoint one himself.
With all that being said, you better believe that this is an important Election topic. Especially since many potential cases and decisions loom (Guantanamo Bay, The Patriot Act, Immigrants Rights, Separation Between Church and State, Gay Rights, etc.).
Senator Kerry said, during one of the debates, that he'd use a "litmus" test to determine appointees to the bench should any retire during his term if he wins office. I'd suspect that his appointees would be on the very liberal side, considering Kerry's liberal Senate record. I'd also suspect that Justice Sandra Day O'Connor (the legitimately moderate Judge) and liberal Justice John Paul Stevens (the oldest at 84) would retire should Kerry win.
President Bush has refuted the notion of using a "litmus" test to determine appointees, but we know that he favors Justices in the mold of Scalia and Thomas- staunch conservatives. All of Bush's appointees and recommendations in the lower courts have been extreme conservatives. As a result, there has been much filibustering in the Senate by Democrats, in turn blocking the appointment of many such Judges.
Bush used the race card in order to appoint a conservative Judge by nominating a strict conservative Hispanic to one of the lower courts (as a side note, I should mention that serving on lower courts is a stepping stone to the Supreme Court), knowing that Democrats have a strangle hold on minority interests. His efforts failed.
Bush did get a Federal Appeals bench nominee through when he bypassed the Senate confirmation process and appointed controversial US District Judge Charles Pickering. Pickering has had a past that includes opposition to the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (which essentially allowed Blacks to vote), a law review article that he wrote that would justify the banning of interracial marriages, and opposition to abortion rights laws.
It is clear to me that which ever party wins the election wins the Court. The effects of which could last upwards of 40 years. I think the Republicans have a decided advantage since the oldest member of the Court is a liberal, whom I suspect may have to retire soon regardless of who's elected. Furthermore, I do believe that O'Connor, the voice of reason, shall retire too, especially since she is 1 of 3 Justices to have had cancer surgery in recent years. Her loss will be immense because it is she and Justice Anthony Kennedy that reason and decide virtually every close vote.
So, when you go to the polls on November 2nd, consider not only the man you vote for, but also the issues that concern you daily and what that man's stances on them are. Because this year, more than in recent elections, when we vote for President, we will also be voting for our laws as decided by these potential Supreme Court appointments.
-Maelstrom
For more information, check out these sites:
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/18/SUPREMES.TMP
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/20/election.scotus/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/17/bush.pickering/
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