Iraq's "Democratic" Elections

In just over a week, Iraq will be having what the Bush administratin is hailing as "free, democratic" elections. I hate to be a cynic, because Democracy would be a great improvement over Saddam's dictatorship, but I just don't see it happening. Though we should all keep our fingers crossed, and while Bush remains optimistic, I don't think we can deny the obvious realities going on.

Here's my personal opinion on the whole deal. The so-called insurgency that we are witnessing is actually the first stages of an impending civil war. Compounding this civil war is the regional implications that the fighting is going to have, as well as the religious dissension it is exacerbating amongst the two dominant Muslim communities, as well as the rift the war is escalating between the Western world and the religion of Islam.

Now I know that is a mouthful, and would take far too long to explain here, but I'd like to point out exactly why no democracy is going to come of this election.

To begin, this election is set up in a fashion that will prove less democratic than the election that put George W. Bush in office in 2000.

The question of "who is Iraqi" is a major problem. Iraqi's that have migrated or immigrated to other countries will have the opportunity to vote in this election. However, they must show up to the polls in person, which are located around the globe (5 here in the USA), to prove their citizenship. Now here's the catch: People of Iraqi heritage can also vote, but only if their father is Iraqi; if someone's mother is an Iraqi immigrant and their father is not, they cannot vote in the election. How silly, how unfair, how Un-democratic!

The 3 major sects of people in Iraq (Sunni Muslims, Shi'ite Muslims, Kurds) aren't particularly good friends. There is no Iraqi melting pot as we see in America and so many other countries throughout the world. The Kurds, who happen to be the world's largest ethnic group without their own state (population over 20 million), want to separate themselves from the rest of Iraq and begin the official creation of the state of Kurdistan (which is currently an unofficial territory that includes parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijan). The Sunni Muslims, who are a minority in Iraq, don't want to relinquish their power. And the Shi'ite Muslims want to gain power that their 63% majority population might suggest they should have.

I believe that the Kurds will certainly vote. Any means that might help their cause of creating a Kurdish state is a welcome measure to them. Having even a small portion of representation may give them the ability to govern themselves to some extent-a very meaningful step (or at least symbolic step) towards demarcation.

We all know that the Shi'a are voting. They will indeed "win" the election in the majority of the country. This is a fearful thing for many of the countries of the world, for fear that Iraq will turn into another Iran (remember Iran=axis of evil). I don't know if that is a fair assessment, but I do thoroughly believe that they will move towards a theocratic government, which is what exists in Iran.

Finally, the wild-card, the Sunni's. They only make-up 35% of the population in Iraq, but they hold the key to whether or not anything positive will come out of this election.

For starters, they're not voting. At least not in representative numbers. As the election approaches, it does indeed appear that it is the Sunni's who are causing the destructive insurgency. This makes sense since they enjoyed power under Saddam's reign. Now that it is likely they will lose power in these elections, they want to do all they can to disrupt it.

Now I should make the following distinction: There are Sunni Muslims in Iraq who would like to vote (despite their likely defeat as a group), and there are Sunni Muslims in Iraq who would like to disrupt the vote. Also, many of the insurgents are indeed Sunni, but happen to be foreign followers of al-Qaeda deputy Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi (who is Jordanian). With all of these divisions within their own group, it is highly unlikely that they will vote significantly. So my question is (with respect to the Sunni's), how can this election be deemed democratic if a whole sect of people within the country don't vote and are thus left out of the governing body? Certainly they will want some form of representation.

Voting security is another huge hurdle to climb if there are to be Democratic elections. Many Iraqi's fear that they will be killed at the polls. Zarqawi's group of militants apparently have no reservations about killing Shi'ite Muslims, calling them Idolaters, and essentially saying that they aren't Muslim. He also seems to think that anyone who votes is supporting the enemy, which means that he and his terrorists may even shed Sunni blood should any Sunni's attempt to vote next week ( a move that may backfire on him if such things occur).

Now let's recap why this election isn't nearly Democratic:
-Only children of Iraqi heritage whose Father is Iraqi can vote in foreign countries
-The 3 factions of people in Iraq seem to each want to govern their ownselves (especially the Kurds)
-The Sunni's probably won't vote, at least not in significant numbers, leaving them unrepresented
-Security is not a guarantee at all

At this point, however, these elections must go forward. If they don't, the USA will lose much credibility and it would be a victory for the insurgents. My suggestion is that the Parliament be set up like the one in Canada. Their system (which I also think should be implemented in the USA) allows for governmental representation for even small parties/groups that win a portion of the electorate. This way the Sunni's would still have representation, even if they are outnumbered.

I truly fear that this election is only going to usher in the next stage of a civil war in Iraq, and that US troops will be there (in force) for years and years to come. And although comparisons to Afghanistan's elections are extremely invalid to me, those elections did turn out much better than I had expected. Hopefully, for the sake of the Iraqi people and for troops that are there from around the world, successful elections will be their reality as well.

-Maelstrom