Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Political Comments Response (part 2)

I know that the Democratic Nomination Race is over, so most of what I say in this post is now “post-relevant,” but I promised a response to comments posted about my post “Tell the Truth,” so here it is!

“Everybody except Kucinich and Clinton pulled their name off the Michigan ballot…In Florida pulling your name off the ballot is not possible…Obama when he pulled his name…just followed the rules.”

To start, Clinton and Kucinich were joined on the ballot by Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, and “Uncommitted.” Biden, Richardson, Edwards and Obama took their names off. By the way, there was a very vigorous campaign to have people vote Uncommitted, and it was promoted in 2 ways: 1. as a vote against Hillary Clinton, and 2. a vote for someone whose name wasn’t on the ballot (e.g. Obama or Edwards). Finally, “Uncommitted” is a Constitutionally recognized voting status, as pointed out by DNC member Harold Ickes.

Your other point here is perhaps the biggest (largely Obama supporter) myth. Obama could’ve pulled his name off the Florida ballot the same day he pulled his name off the Michigan ballot (Oct 9, 2007). In fact, he could’ve pulled his name off the ballot for 3 weeks after he pulled his name off the Michigan ballot. The argument that people make, falsely, is that if a candidate pulls his/her name off the ballot, they can’t be on the ballot during the general election should they win their Party’s nomination. NOT TRUE, NOT TRUE, NOT TRUE. The candidates are only penalized for pulling their name off the ballot once the ballot has been certified by the State of Florida. The date that the ballot was due to the Secretary of State was October 31st, with the certification on November 6th. Obama had ample time to pull his name off the ballot. This reality begs the question, why did he pull his name off of Michigan’s ballot and not Florida’s? For me, there’s a simple answer, he was playing politics.

You can find this is Florida’s Federal Election Qualifying Handbook for 2008, as well as in chapter 103, section 101 of Title IX in the 2007 Florida Statutes.

See 2007 Florida Statutes:
http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=Ch0103/SEC101.HTM&Title=-%3E2007-%3ECh0103-%3ESection%20101#0103.101

For a more in depth summary, see:
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/28/112416/694

You rightly stated, however, that the impossibility of pulling names off the Florida ballot is “what the media reported at the time.” A reality that lends credence to the notion that the media was favorable to Obama.

“If Obama would be on the ballot…he might have done pretty well (in Michigan)…significant African American Community, neighboring state of IL…”

Fair point, but the opposite, if you go based off your premises, could be said of Clinton in Florida; one of the largest (if not the largest) number of elderly people in the country, a large Jewish population, and a so-called “Big State.” Those are all demographics that Obama has trouble with and Clinton does well with. This is why I think that once we arrived at the month of May, there was no fair way of doing things.

That said, I know quite a lot about Michigan, being from there, and I don’t think it would have been as easy as you suggest. Here’s why: Both a very popular former Democrat Governor, Jim Blanchard, and the current Governor Jennifer Granholm are staunch Clinton supporters, and carry great weight with State Democrats. Although Obama, based on how he did in other similar large cities, would have likely carried many of the counties in the Detroit area, the only other Metropolitan area of note, Grand Rapids, is vastly Republican. Furthermore, other highly visible Democrats had endorsed Clinton, including Senator Debbie Stabenow, Rep John Dingell and DNC member Joel Ferguson (The only major Obama backers were Rep John Conyers and DNC member Virgie Rollins). Based on these realities, I think Obama and Edwards took their names off the Michigan ballot with the knowledge that it would be tough to beat her there, coupled with the reality that the votes would not (at that time) count. Again, I think Obama was doing what people seem to think he is incapable of, and that is he played “politics” with Michigan and Florida. But that’s my opinion, and we’ll never know.

“Disenfranchised voters…many people stayed home knowing that their votes were not counted…”

You are absolutely right. I know that my best friend is one of the people that did just that. I also know that there were people who voted “Uncommitted” not because they were for Obama/Edwards/Biden/Richardson, but because they were protesting the fact names weren’t on the ballot, felt a duty to vote but were upset that the vote wouldn’t count, as well as some people who were just unclear/confused about the ballot. For instance, I have a family member who voted Uncommitted in Michigan even though they did not want to vote for Obama/Edwards/Biden/Richardson, they wanted to vote for Kucinich, who was on the ballot. So, it is unfair to assume that the entire Uncommitted vote was for the 4 candidates who pulled their names from the ballot; I know for a fact this was not the case. And the notion that the 40% Uncommitted vote was a vote for Obama is incredibly off base. The primary was held on January 15th, when Clinton, Obama and Edwards were all very strong, and Richardson still relevant. Finally, if you want to take the side that everyone was clear that the vote wouldn’t count in Michigan (which Jim Blanchard pointed out at the DNC meeting May 31st was not the case), I think it’s striking that so many people still turned out to vote for Clinton, despite the vigorous “vote Uncommitted” campaign.

“Why am I for Obama…”

I have no problem with the reasons you’ve stated for your support of Obama. However, perhaps I’m a little too semantic, but none of your reasons get deep on the issues. I say this because, on the surface, Obama and Clinton have a virtually identical set of goals and ideologies. However, having listened to hundreds of hours of press coverage, read dozens of print articles, read both Candidates websites, considered their public statements as well as voting records since Obama joined the Senate, spoken to members of both Candidates campaigns, and personally attended rallies by both Clinton and Obama, it is clear to me that once you get below the surface, Clinton has the most forward reaching, progressive, feasible (especially monetarily) and implementable ideas. And for me, that’s important for a Candidate to be clear about; have they really taken a look at this country, the state we’re in, and based their plans on how they think they can get us out of the problems we have. But I am certain many people voted for Obama, and hold angry views of Clinton without even considering what she and her platform are all about (or what Obama’s platform is all about for that matter either).

This is not to say that Obama doesn’t have forward looking plans, but if he has, we wouldn’t know it because he certainly hasn’t gotten too deep in articulating his position on the issues, except perhaps race. I say this having asked several people, including those working on the Obama campaign, what his views are on the Economy, the Iraq War, Health Care, Social Security, Michigan/Florida, etc., and it always turns out that I know more than they do (and in my opinion what he’s presented is leaps and bounds less comprehensive than what Clinton presented).

Finally, Hillary staying in the race absolutely did not disenfranchise voters. At no point during the last 3 months was Obama convincingly ahead of Clinton in popular vote or delegates. Even since the DNC meeting, if you look at the numbers, they are still incredibly close. And in years past, people have taken their case to the Democratic National Convention with only a tenth of the delegates of the leading candidate. She has perhaps the most compelling case of anyone in history.

The fact of the matter is, in my opinion, the race should go to the Convention because neither candidate got the number of Pledged Delegates needed to wrap up the nomination. The media did a good job of conflating Pledged and Super Delegates, but the fact of the matter is, Super Delegates have the right to switch their vote at any time until the Convention. Therefore, if you want to go by the rules, Clinton had it within her rights to take her case to the Convention. I think she has done the prudent thing in suspending her campaign, but I’m bothered by many in the Media (along with the chorus of Obama supporters) who make it seem like she’s committed some crime, or violated the rules by continuing on. Many made it seem like she had no chance to beat him as far back as early March; a casual outside observer would’ve thought that she was behind by 1,000 delegates if they listened to many of the Media pundits. However, it became apparent to me that she had a slight, but very legitimate, chance to pull off the victory well into May. And what about Democracy? I think it was only Democratic for all the Primary races to run their course, especially in a year with 2 Candidates that were so close in delegate counts.

And I must point out that once you get to the facts, you’ll find that Obama has made as many misstatements, missteps, mischaracterizations and mistakes as Clinton during this campaign (AND I MEAN THAT…I was prepared to post a laundry list of comparisons of things Clinton has been grilled about that Obama also committed, but was given a pass on—including 2 statements Obama made that are as false as Hillary’s Bosnia statement that I’m sure most people reading this have NEVER heard about (thanks to the Obama friendly Media)...but since the nomination season is over, I’ll let it go).

I do give Obama credit for 2 things over Clinton: He is a more unifying figure than she is. I don’t think this is really her fault; I think it dates back to Republican characterizations of Clinton in the 90’s when she was fighting for Universal Health Care. I think it was those attacks on her that made people today HATE Hillary for no particular reason (I have contended for years that people hate her and can’t even give a reason why…I know because I’ve asked people why they hate her for years). The other thing Obama has done is run a much smoother campaign that even got young people to not just be excited, but to actually go out and vote. The Unity issue in Obama’s favor is what I think rivals Clinton’s forward thinking plans and platform, and what ultimately pushed this blogger to indecision on these 2 candidates until the last day before my State’s primary.

So to conclude, my basic point in my “Tell the Truth” post was simply that people should be fair, honest, truthful, learn to call a spade a spade and make their decisions from there. What’s right for one candidate is right for the other, what’s wrong for one candidate is wrong for the other. And ultimately, I think Obama supporters have done him a great disservice by not “vetting” him much harder. I don’t think people have been too hard on Clinton (especially considering that this is for the Presidency of the USA), but I certainly think there hasn’t been enough critiquing of Obama as a whole. By not holding him to the same standards they held her to, it only makes it that much easier for people (like Clinton supporters) to say “see, I told you so…you should’ve voted for Hillary” if Obama makes the slightest misstep in the future.

-Maelstrom

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

FL - MI:
Lets get into the details and not use some talkleft blog. Lets go straight to the Statues of FL and MI.
FL: you linked to it so you find it. section (3): "an affidavit stating that he or she is not now, and does not presently intend to become, a candidate for President at the upcoming nominating convention."
MI: www.legislature.mi.gov and search senate bill 0624 (2007). There is a pdf. section 615a(1): "A presidential candidate ... may file an affidavit with the secretary of state indicating that he or she does not wish to have his or her name printed on a presidential primary ballot and the secretary of state shall not cause that presidential candidate\u2019s name to be printed
on a ballot for the presidential primary."
BIG DIFFERENCE: While in FL it says that the candidate, if he pulls his name will not be a candidate of the president, in MI it says his/her name will just not be printed on the primary ballot. MI does not say a thing about being a candidate.
Side note: MI, if you read the entire bill, allows for a party to change the primary election to post 1/15.

"A reality that lends credence to the notion that the media was favorable to Obama."
The idea that the media being swayed one way or the other might be depend on your point of view. If you talk to Obama supporters they say the media is swayed, to Clinton.

Endorsement point: Endorsements were not as successful in this primary season. In Pittsburgh a very prominent AA major had supported Clinton. What happened in the primary: Obama won the AA vote in Pittsburgh. Second, Clinton had much more endorsements, especially in the votes before Ohio, yet she was trailing. So endorsements are great but what voters care about might be different.

Voting uncommitted: sure many people that voted uncommitted did not want to vote for BO. They were uncommitted. And yes there was a strong drive especially by BO supporters to vote uncommitted. But the entire process was a mess at that point, some candidates on, some off the ballot. Some candidates saw Hilary's trick of staying on the ballot and trying to use the win for political favor. It was a mess and I think you cannot put the uncommitted voters in any single basket.

Obama vs. Clinton: Who has the most forward ideas depend on your point of view. In my point of view Obama is more forward while Clinton takes the more experienced old-fashioned approach.

What I think has to be pointed out that although she had a chance to get the most delegates, those chances were slim (e.g. After NC and IN, she would have to win in OR with a difference of 80%). In OR!! That really was as likely as winning a Lottery ticket. Which did not happen. I think the mayor advantage of the Obama campaign was that they paid attention to the math and statistics early on.

Suspending the campaign: Romney also suspended his campaign. No big deal. I guess it has legal/financial reasons. Both want to collect some more money that they have lost during the campaign. But HC is out of the race either way.

Superdelegates can change their oppinion as can pledged delegates. But they can change it either way, so Superdelegates from HC can change to BO. So yes, there could be some changes, but would they all move in the HC direction and have HC then more delegates than BO? I don't think so

As for the vetting of the candidate, what scale do you use? BO was certainly tested during the Wright affair. Clinton often got the first questions in debates, which might be advantageous or disadvantageous. But the reason she got the first question might be the subconscious gentlemen behavior of "Ladies first". And also the questions to him: "Why can't you close the deal in PA?" and "Why do you have problems with older people?" are unfair because, Clinton having it easier with these voters does not imply the other-one having a problem. So in my view, the media vetted both ways. What I want to add though: every time HC complained, the media got a little off her back and more onto BO. Perhaps that was the reason for the complains. (I noticed the same, in the opposite direction, once BO complained.)

Maelstrom: Thank you for the discussion. Thank you for answering. It is enligthning.

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