The Republican Nomination Race

The current race for the nomination for President of the United States has been among the most lively and interesting that we’ve seen since perhaps the 1991-92 election season. It is the first time in decades that both parties have a full complement of candidates vying for their party’s nomination since the outgoing (Republican) incumbent Vice President isn’t seeking the nomination and the current President has reached his term limit.

The field has shrunk on both sides at this point, but we’re a long way from determining who will win the nod for either the Democrats or Republicans. And then there’s always the threat of a 3^rd party candidate throwing their hat in the race, with a buzz circling NYC Mayor and Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, and even whispers of CNN Primetime anchor Lou Dobbs potentially running.

So here’s the race as I currently see it…Republicans first:

It is a free-for-all on the Right side of the aisle, as the first three major stops along the road to the nomination have yielded three different victors; Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (Iowa), Arizona Senator John McCain (New Hampshire) and Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (Michigan). And all this before Rudy Giuliani even makes a major campaign attempt at the nomination. And don’t forget about the 6 million dollars in campaign donations in a day guy, Texas Senator Ron Paul.

I’ll start with the guy who “cleaned up New York,” Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani’s strategy has been to watch the first few political showdowns from the sidelines and then ramp up his campaign in the larger states. He has done this in large part because he is seen as about as far Left as you can be and still call yourself a Republican; at least socially. With three different winners on the Republican side in the first three major contests, it appears that Giuliani’s strategy may pay off. The race is still wide-open which means Giuliani could very well win one of the next few major Primaries and be just as likely to win the nomination as Huckabee, McCain or Romney. However, recent polling in Florida shows him trailing despite his heavy campaigning there. Time shall tell if his strategy is successful.

Michigan native son Mitt Romney finally traded in his “silver’s” for gold as he won the Primary in Michigan last week. Unfortunately for Romney, his competitors are simply writing off this victory in Michigan as one of sentimentality and familiarity from the Michigan populace (similarly, his victory in Nevada has also been downplayed due to the large Morman presence there). It will be interesting to see if the business-minded Romney can win other states that have strong Unions like Michigan does (e.g. states like Pennsylvania).

Vietnam vet and former POW John McCain has thrown a little bit of a wrench into the race. Early in the campaign season it appeared that his bid for the nomination was becoming irreparably unraveled. Somehow he weathered the shake-ups in his campaign (and the lack of large financial stores) and parlayed his perseverance into a victory at the New Hampshire primary and a very strong showing in Michigan. He also seems to be a favorite of Independent voters, along with Obama on the Democratic side. With his ship righted, he will definitely be a major player in the Primaries to come.

A virtual unknown this time last year, Mike Huckabee has become a formidable presence at each stop along the nomination path. He is perhaps best liked among social and Christian conservatives. As a result, he registered a stunning victory at the Iowa Caucus, despite being outspent tremendously by the second place finisher Mitt Romney. He didn’t fare nearly as well in New Hampshire or Michigan, and at times he hasn’t looked like he’s ready for the big stage. On more than one occasion he has been caught off guard and unaware of major foreign events and occurrences. His challenge is to be more appealing to fiscal conservatives (who have attacked his record of tax increases while he was Arkansas Governor), as well as to be more aware of world affairs.

Finally, there’s the non-conventional Texas Senator Ron Paul. Although I think some of Paul’s ideas are impractical, I do take offense to the cavalier and snide rebuttals toward Paul (at the New Hampshire debate) from Giuliani and Romney when Paul suggested that “they” (the terrorists) attacked us in part because we have a strong military presence in many of their (holy) lands. Paul is partly right on this issue, and his sentiments are echoed by many others, including Conservative MSNBC Political Commentator Pat Buchanan (who has spent several years studying the Middle East) as well as Osama Bin Laden himself (and a whole host of others that I won’t bother naming, including high-ranking military personnel and the like). But whether one disagrees with him or not on the issue, it bothered me that there was no rational consideration of his point-of-view, just terse dismissal. In any case, I don’t think he will win the race (despite his ability to raise millions and millions of dollars seemingly at will), and so I’m curious to whom his votes will go; perhaps the Independent favorite McCain?

Having mulled over the multivarious parameters that voters may consider on the Right side of the political spectrum, my guess is that Romney will eventually win the Republican nomination with John McCain being his biggest challenge. I think Giuliani’s strategy has cost him valuable national face time, and so he won’t grab the nomination. However, how he fares on “Super Tuesday” (Feb 5^th) should clear things up on the Republican side.

Best Bet to win the Republican Nomination: Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney

Potential Spoilers: Arizona Senator John McCain and Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani

-Maelstrom